by Terry Plotkin
I read an article by John Bolton, a former Bush adviser who seems to believe that war is the answer to many of our foreign problems. He says that Secretary of State John Kerry is wildly wrong for making an agreement. This from a man who did everything he could to get us into an unnecessary war with Iraq to protect us from weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist, and thought we would be greeted as liberators. How is that strategy working out? Similarly, Norman Podhertz writes in the WSJ his premise that war with Iran has to be fought now or fought later with nuclear weapons. Why should we listen to them? The neo-cons are up to their old tricks again with the relentless beating of the war drums. Fear. Fear. Fear all the time. What an excellent way to control the population.
Podhertz disagrees, as do I, with the critics of the deal who say you can negotiate a better one. Given who our negotiating partners are – Russia and China – it is a miracle they even got this far without the sanctions crumbling. If no deal is reached and more sanctions are imposed, then, without question, Iran will try to make a nuclear bomb. The critics act as if they were in the room during the negotiations and know what is possible. Or that at some point Europe, Russia, and China won’t walk away from the sanctions and trade with Iran. Or that Iran will realize that the United States has no intention of making an agreement they can live with and will restart their weapons program regardless of what we do.
The neo-cons are saying what few people who criticize the nuclear deal with Iran believe but are unwilling to say, which is we need to go to war with Iran now and overthrow the regime. What they don’t mention will be the aftermath of occupying the country indefinitely. Iran is 5 times the size of Iraq, so take a moment to imagine how this would play out. And that is just one of the important issues to be faced.
A war with Iran at this point in time has the potential to have incredibly disastrous outcomes for many reasons. I will mention just a few. The American people would not support another war, our economy could not handle it, the military doesn’t want it, untold innocent people would be killed by our guns, paid for by our tax dollars, thus triggering more hatred and more terrorism against us. Another war now in that part of the world would trigger even greater conflict than what we already see. Iraq, which is supported by Iran, could fall to ISIL, or at the very least turn against the U.S. The oil supply would not be able to move through the Persian Gulf, likely triggering a world-wide recession or depression. There is also the distinct possibility that the war will not go well and Iran will hold its own for a while. If Iran was being invaded or bombed they would go all out to build a nuclear weapon as fast as possible, Israel being the immediate target, thus triggering a nuclear war. This is not a far fetched outcome and it could happen in just a few months.
At the very least, this deal gives the world 15 years to figure a way out and a lot will happen in that time, possibly including a change in the government of Iran.
War is not the only alternative, as has been the case in most every war the U.S. has engaged, often with disastrous results. It is insane to start another one against Iran now out of fear that it might be necessary someday. It is a lot easier to make a mess than to clean it up. And there is nothing messier in the entire world than war.